World Overview
The International Crisis Group (ICG), Crisis Watch N°59, July 1, 2008, http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5528, reported five actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in June 2008 and three improved. “In Zimbabwe, state-sponsored violence further escalated ahead of the 27 June presidential run-off vote, as the Mugabe regime continued its brutal crackdown to secure victory. Opposition MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai was detained five times over the month, opposition campaigning was repressed and the polling day itself marked by widespread voter intimidation. Up to 200,000 have been displaced in rural violence. Mugabe stood as the sole candidate after Tsvangirai withdrew on 22 June over election conditions. Mugabe’s election for a sixth term in office drew strong regional and international condemnation.“ Uganda’s fragile peace process continued to decay amid reports of fresh LRA attacks and threats from neighboring states to wage an armed offensive against LRA leader Joseph Kony if the impasse continues. Kony called for a resumption of talks late in June but still has not signed the final peace deal since first refusing in April. Insecurity exploded in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta, as militant groups launched a series of large-scale attacks, including the first ever assault on a deep offshore oilfield, following army raids on militant bases in early June. Progress on the much-delayed Niger Delta peace summit faltered, as groups protested President Yar‚Adua‚s failure to meet key preconditions. The situation also deteriorated in Djibouti/Eritrea and Chad.
The situation improved in North Korea, as the government submitted a long-awaited declaration of its nuclear programs on June 26. In response, the U.S. suggested the possibility of removing the DPRK from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, as a new round of six-party talks was expected. China and Taiwan also saw improvement in cross-Strait relations, agreeing to resume key transport ties at the first bilateral talks in over a decade. The situation also improved in Serbia.
Unchanged were Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Comoros Islands, Côte d‚Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, and Yemen.
ICG CrisisWatch N°60, 1 August 2008. http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5611, found, “Six actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in July 2008 and three improved. In Somalia, divisions between hardliners and moderates within the Islamist opposition Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia threatened the already fragile peace deal signed in June. Amid continuing violence and government appeals for UN troop deployment, the African Union said that the newly extended AMISOM force was incapable of stabilising the situation. Continued deadly attacks on aid workers and lack of escorts for shipments further endangered humanitarian operations. In Afghanistan, a car bomb outside the Indian embassy killed scores, and was the deadliest attack in the capital since 2001. Relations with neighboring Pakistan reached a new low after Kabul alleged involvement by Pakistani intelligence services and shut down talks with Islamabad. Pakistan’s relations with India also deteriorated, in July, after bombings in Ahmedabad and a series of gunfire exchanges across the Line of Control in Kashmir. The situation also deteriorated in the North Caucasus, where violence spread throughout the region, and in Mongolia with deadly post-election riots.
“The situation improved in Serbia, where former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic was arrested in Belgrade and extradited to the ICTY – an important step towards EU integration by the newly approved pro-EU coalition government. In Colombia the army’s rescue of former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt and 14 other hostages dealt a significant blow to FARC rebels. The situation also improved in Mali, where Algeria helped kick-start talks between the government and Tuareg rebels with a ceasefire 21 July. For August 2008 CrisisWatch identifies two Conflict Resolution Opportunities. In Zimbabwe, historic face-to-face talks between President Mugabe and MDC opposition leader Tsvangirai are due to resume on 3 August, presenting an opportunity to negotiate a way out of the violent four-month election crisis with a power-sharing government. In Sudan, events in the wake of the 14 July application by the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court for a warrant for Sudanese President Bashir create an important opportunity for progress on the stalled Darfur peace process, CPA implementation and accountability for past abuses.”
Unchanged were Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Comoros Islands, Côte d‚Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, and Zimbabwe
Michael T. Klare, “Global Power shift,” Foreign Policy in Focus, May 6, 2008 (http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5199), “In this new, challenging political landscape, the possession of potent military arsenals can be upstaged by the ownership of mammoth reserves of oil, natural gas, and other sources of primary energy. Hence, Russia, which escaped from the Cold War era in a shattered, demoralized condition, has reemerged as a major actor in the international arena by virtue of its colossal energy resources. For all its military might, the United States has, in contrast, sometimes found itself reduced to cajoling its foreign oil suppliers—including long-term allies such as Saudi Arabia—to increase their petroleum output in order to slow the upward spiral in energy prices. The “sole superpower” has, in short, found itself scrambling—on the battlefield, on global trading floors, and in diplomatic back rooms—to somehow come to terms with what Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-IN has termed “petro-superpowers”—nations that wield disproportionate power in the international system by virtue of their superior energy reserves. Other major energy-consuming nations have also been forced to adjust to this changing landscape. China, which enjoys enormous economic clout because of its enviable balance-of-payments position—in late 2007 its foreign currency reserves stood at a staggering $1.4 trillion—is nonetheless becoming ever more dependent on imported petroleum and so must scour the world for available supplies. Japan, with the world’s second largest economy—yet even more dependent on imported energy supplies than China—has found itself locked in fierce competition with Beijing for access to some of the same overseas reserves. On the other side of the ledger, energy-rich states like Kazakhstan and Nigeria have come to enjoy greater leverage in world affairs, attracting a constant stream of high-level visitors from energy-consuming nations—often bearing promises of investment financing, military aid, and other forms of largess.”
Theresa Hitchens and David Chen, “Forging a Sino-US ‘grand bargain’ in space,” ScienceDirect, June 2008, posted August 1, http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=4351&from_page=../index.cfm, finds that recent events have made Sino-U.S. competition, and even conflict, in space increasingly likely, so it is important that the incoming U.S. administration have a bargaining strategy aimed at achieving improved security for U.S. space systems and forestalling an anti-satellite arms race with China.
On August 6, following Georgia beginning an offensive to retake its province of South Ossetia, Russian troops escalated cross boarder fighting with Georgia, invading Georgia’s separatist province of South Ossetia. Russian attacks extended beyond Georgia’s two separatist provinces into other areas of the country. By August 18, it appeared that a truce had been achieved, and that Russian troops would withdraw, but as of August 21, Russian troops were instead hardening their position. (see background details below).
Experts on terrorism stated, in June (Eric Schmitt, “Asian Gains Seen in Terror Fight,” The New York Times, June 7, 2008), that the terror networks that have caused the most deaths in Southeast Asia have suffered significant setbacks over the last three years, as a result of aggressive policing, improved intelligence and military operations, and falling away of public support. Sabrina Taverinse, “Turkish Schools Offer Pakistan a Gentler Islam,” The New York Times, May 4, 2008, reports that moderate Turkish Islamic schools in Pakistan, and 79 other countries, offer an alternative model to Madrasses “that could reduce the sway of militants.” Human Rights Watch charged, in July, that France’s fighting terrorism through sweeping arrests that often detain people with no connection to likely suspects, and aggressive interrogations and prosecutions, preventing suspects from having a fair trial, with too many arrests and convictions based upon scanty evidence, has created human rights abuses. Many critics also find the approach more counter productive than helpful, producing more faulty than correct intelligence, while creating support for terrorists among the groups targeted by counterterrorism actions.
The U.S. United Steelworkers merged with the largest labor organization in England and Ireland, in July, to form, Workers Uniting, the first global labor union, in launching a world wide labor strategy to meet the conditions of globalization.
